Austral Insights #17

Welcome to Austral Insights, your go-to source for understanding Argentina's key developments. Each week, we bring you concise, business-focused insights into the country’s politics, economy, and strategic sectors—providing the local perspective you need to make informed decisions.

Argentina by the numbers:

*_{Emerging Markets Bond Index (JP Morgan)}
**_{The S&P MERVAL Index tracks the largest, most liquid stocks on Argentina’s exchange, meeting size and liquidity requirements}

This week’s highlights:

• Private firms import Bolivian gas after 20 years, underscoring deregulation in the energy sector but—most importantly—infrastructure constraints to Vaca Muerta’s development.

• Salta’s provincial Senate approves mining tax cut through 2026 to attract investment.

• Major demonstration supporting Cristina Kirchner after her conviction on June 18; so far, Peronism seems reunified, and Milei remains strategically cautious.

• Inside Congress: Congress largely idle this week due to holidays and political caution.

• What do Argentines think about..? Majority believe CFK is guilty of corruption; public split on whether conviction helps or hurts Milei, and a majority thinks the ruling will spark greater social conflict.

Oil & Gas

Trafigura and Gas Meridional have begun importing Bolivian natural gas for resale to private power generators, marking the first market access for private firms in more than 20 years, since these imports were exclusive to Enarsa. This highlights two critical dynamics: Milei’s deregulation push and the persistent infrastructure bottleneck—especially in electricity transmission—hindering the flow of Vaca Muerta output amid rising winter demand.

Mining

Salta’s Senate approved a decree cutting mining taxes until December 31, 2026 (renewable for another year), as part of a push to stimulate investment. Stakeholders report this reduction was broadly agreed upon within the sector. This move is set to further improve the momentum that the province is undergoing, with significant investment announcements in recent months, as Austral Insights has been reporting.

Politics

One week after Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s conviction, her apartment has become a nightly protest site, culminating in a large-scale mobilization of her supporters on June 18. While CFK remains under house arrest , the demonstrations have revived her political relevance. Notably, Peronism—previously fragmented—has shown renewed cohesion around her figure. Meanwhile, President Milei has adopted an uncharacteristically cautious stance, with Chief of Staff Guillermo Francos stating that the administration “would have preferred to beat her at the polls”. The conviction seems to be unifying the opposition—at least in the short term—and restores a polarizing figure to center stage, but one who the administration will not be able to confront at the polls.

Inside Congress

It’s a semana corta (short week) in Argentina—June 16 and 20 are holidays—so congressional activity has slowed to a crawl. With Peronists focused on CFK’s conviction—which they argue to effectively be a proscription—and the ruling coalition lacking incentive to legislate on politically sensitive issues, the floor remained largely empty.

What do Argentines think about…?

In a week where CFK’s conviction was at the center of public discussion, a poll from Opina Argentina finds that 57% believe Cristina Kirchner is guilty of corruption, while 37% believe she is innocent. Regarding the implications of her conviction:

• 46% think it won’t affect Milei’s administration;

• 28% say it will benefit him;

• 22% suggest it will harm him.

On the social front:

• 52% expect the verdict to spark greater social conflict;

• 41% expect no effect;

• 7% are unsure.

There is little doubt that CFK’s conviction will reshape Argentina’s political landscape. As events continue to unfold, we’ll gain a clearer picture of the extent and whose hand it ultimately strengthens.

Stay tuned to Austral Insights for ongoing analysis and updates.

Are you interested in the risks and opportunities that Argentina presents? Is there an issue you’d like to discuss or understand in greater depth? Reach out for a free 30-minute talk at [email protected].

See you next week with more insights!