Austral Insights #18

Welcome to Austral Insights, your go-to source for understanding Argentina's key developments. Each week, we bring you concise, business-focused insights into the country’s politics, economy, and strategic sectors—providing the local perspective you need to make informed decisions.

Argentina by the numbers:

*_{Emerging Markets Bond Index (JP Morgan)}
**_{The S&P MERVAL Index tracks the largest, most liquid stocks on Argentina’s exchange, meeting size and liquidity requirements}

This week’s highlights:

• AbraSilver’s Diablillos silver project moves forward; targets RIGI submission and construction by 2026.

• YPF exits six Mendoza oilfields to focus entirely on Vaca Muerta as Neuquén hits all-time production record.

• IMF review: Argentina meets most targets, waiver likely for reserve gap; next disbursement expected.

• Inside Congress: Court expansion talks resume with Peronist participation; $LIBRA investigative still lacks to make real progress.

• What do Argentines think about..? A regional survey places Milei as most popular South American leader, now at 54% positive.

Mining

AbraSilver’s chairman shared a letter with shareholders highlighting progress at the Diablillos project, the first silver mine in Salta’s Puna region. The Definitive Feasibility Study is underway, aiming for a construction decision by mid-2026. Provincial environmental approvals are progressing, and a RIGI—incentive regime for large investments—application is expected in H1 2026. Notably, the chairman struck a positive tone on Argentina’s business and mining climate under the Milei administration, signaling growing confidence in the country’s mining outlook.

Oil & Gas

YPF has finalized the divestment of six conventional oilfields in Mendoza to an independent producer. This move aligns with its “Andes Project,” which aims to divest from mature conventional basins and fully focus on shale production in Vaca Muerta. This is central to YPF’s “4x4” strategic plan. The company’s bet on shale oil is reinforced by record production levels as May marked a record in Neuquén’s oil output—468,683 barrels per day, up 1.4% from April and 19% year-on-year—underscoring the growing importance of the Vaca Muerta basin.

IMF

An IMF delegation arrived in Argentina for the first technical mission following the April agreement for a USD 20bn Extended Fund Facility. Argentina complied with all program targets except for the one related to net reserve accumulation. As a result, the country is expected to request a waiver—something it is likely to receive—paving the way for the next disbursement. Analysts note that recent fiscal surpluses and the sustained decline in inflation have been key to Argentina’s performance in this first review.

Inside Congress: your weekly legislative monitor

• Discussions on expanding Argentina’s Supreme Court resumed with a plenary session of the Senate’s Constitutional Affairs and Justice and Criminal Affairs Committees. Unlike previous sessions, the Peronist opposition was present. Their participation came with sharp criticism of the court, particularly in response to the recent ruling that confirmed former President Cristina Kirchner’s corruption conviction.

• The $LIBRA crypto scandal investigative commission met again. However, due to ongoing political deadlock, it still lacks officially designated authorities. Several high-profile witnesses—including President Milei and his sister, Karina—were summoned but did not attend. However, some investigative journalists presented before the commission, sharing findings that have fueled public interest and media scrutiny around the case.

What do Argentines think about…?

A new regional survey by CB Consultora Opinión Pública placed President Javier Milei as the most popular leader in South America, with a 54% positive image rating—a month-over-month increase of 5.4%. The ranking evaluated public opinion of regional leaders based on management perception, crisis response, and credibility.

Milei leads over Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa, Uruguay’s Yamandú Orsi, Brazil’s Lula da Silva, and Chile’s Gabriel Boric. At the bottom of the ranking are Colombia’s Gustavo Petro and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.

Milei’s rise in regional popularity comes amid Argentina’s economic stabilization efforts and structural reforms. The data indicates that, despite domestic challenges, the president’s public image is gaining strength both at home and abroad.

Are you interested in the risks and opportunities that Argentina presents? Is there an issue you’d like to discuss or understand in greater depth? Reach out for a free 30-minute talk at [email protected].

See you next week with more insights!